< The 2016 All-Europe Research Team

2016-02-tom-johnson-all-europe-research-team-matteo-ghilotti.jpg

2016-02-tom-johnson-all-europe-research-team-stefano-lustig.jpg

Matteo Ghilotti, Stefano Lustig & team
Equita S.I.M.
First-place appearances: 6

Total appearances: 19

Team debut: 1992

Top-ranked for the past three years, the Equita S.I.M. team co-captained by Matteo Ghilotti, 51, and 50-year-old Stefano Lustig slips to No. 2 — the same position it held in 2012 and 2009, the only other times since 2008 that it hasn’t occupied the winner’s circle. From offices in Milan, the 15-person group reports on 120 Italian names, winning praise for its “high quality of research, earnings forecasts and bottom-up-driven coverage,” remarks one client who especially values the analysts’ work on the health care and telecommunications sectors, as well as “their experience and stability. A lot of their guys have been around for ten years or more, and they all know their stuff.” For the past year Ghilotti, Lustig and their associates have been drawing investors’ attention to Amplifon, the leading global player in the highly fragmented hearing-aid retail space. Structural, long-term growth trends are supportive of strong performance, they advise, such as an ageing population, increasing noise pollution and low rates of market penetration (20 percent, on average). The Milan-headquartered company, moreover, holds a 9 percent share of the worldwide sector and is among the top two competitors in a dozen attractive countries. Beyond its home base, examples include Australia, Belgium, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the U.S. In addition, it generates free cash flow of €70 million ($78.5 million) to €80 million annually, which enables it to fully fund capital expenditures and bolt-on acquisitions without borrowing, Lustig points out. Given its preeminent global positioning, he adds, Amplifon also offers “some speculative appeal as an M&A target for manufacturers looking for vertical integration.” Its shares posted a 43.8 percent advance during the 12 months through mid-January, rocketing to €7.55 during a period in which the domestic market scratched out a 1 percent gain. The researchers cite €8.10 as their price objective.