Daily Agenda: More Stimulus for Japan
Abe’s LDP wins victory; Deutsche Boerse lowers voter threshold for LSE acquisition; CCTrack’s Savage on a summer carry trade.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party secured a decisive victory over the weekend in Upper House elections and responded by an announcement of a new fiscal stimulus package. Japanese equities rallied as investors wagered that a package totaling as much as 20 trillion yen ($195 billion) in spending would follow Abe’s statement that he had received a mandate for more aggressive steps to drive growth, particularly through greater public works outlays. With the Bank of Japan already engaged in an unprecedented quantitative easing program, and more policy actions expected in Europe, the additional flow of funds seems destined to support historically low yields across the globe.
Prime ministerial path opens for Theresa May. Over the weekend, U.K. Energy Minister Andrea Leadsom bowed out of contention for the role of prime minister leaving Home Secretary Theresa May as the last Conservative Party leader in the race to replace outgoing prime minister David Cameron, who said he would resign after the Brexit vote. The pound sterling rose on the news as traders concluded that less political uncertainty would stabilize the currency.
Deutsche Boerse to change vote for LSE approval. On Monday, Deutsche Boerse, the Frankfurt-based exchange operator, announced that its plan to acquire the London Stock Exchange Group may require a lower approval threshold than previously required. The move comes after it became unclear that the 75 percent approval could be secured after the Brexit vote.
GOP leaders accuse Holder of failing to pursue HSBC. The Wall Street Journal today reported that the Republican staff of the Financial Services Committee has concluded that former Attorney General Eric Holder allegedly failed to pursue charges against HSBC over money laundering failures in 2012. According to unnamed sources, Holder overruled the recommendations of an internal Department of Justice report and misled Congress.
Chinese CPI slides. Consumer price data issued by China’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed slowing price growth in June with the headline index slipping to an annualized 1.9 percent. Politically sensitive food prices also declined with the subindex at 4.6 percent versus a prior reading of 5.9 percent year-over-year.
Portfolio Perspective: Is the Summer Trading Plan Just a Big Carry Trade? — Robert Savage, CCTrack Solutions
The surprising outcome Friday, with U.S. jobs stronger than expected but not enough to lift the odds for more Federal Open Market Committee hikes in 2016, leaves many looking for yield, at least until September when Brexit issues will solidify and the pain of Italian banks and Chinese growth will be clarified. Until then we are left with emerging markets leading. The weekly EM debt flows are a signal that carry is back and that means that some EM foreign-exchange currencies are going to rip against the U.S. dollar as well.
Robert Savage is the chief executive officer of CCTrack Solutions, a hedge fund firm in New York.