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Michael Goldstein

Michael Goldstein Empirical

SECOND TEAM

Keith Miller Citi

THIRD TEAM

Pankaj Patel Credit Suisse

RUNNERS-UP

François Trahan ISI

Michael Goldstein of Empirical Research Partners, on top for a second consecutive year, “is the best and has been the best for a long, long time,” declares one impressed investor. The 53-year-old analyst, who is also No. 2 in Port­folio Strategy, published a report in ­July advising investors that oil and gas exploration and production shares were overpriced because “the market is paying for reserves and perhaps including a premium for E&P stocks for the possibility of acquisition,” and that oil ser­vices companies were a more attractive alternative. E&P stocks had trailed oil ser­vices stocks by 8.3 percentage points through mid-­September. Keith Miller of ­Citi climbs one rung to second place. “Miller’s work is thorough and comprehensive — more important, he thinks like an investor,” asserts one satisfied client. Using a proprietary S&P 500 Industry Group Rotation Model to predict outperformance on the basis of return on equity, prior six-month total return, historical relative earnings to price and historical relative cash flow to price, Miller down­graded semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment companies to underperform in January. By mid-­September they had lagged the broad market by 5.3 percentage points. Unranked last year, Pankaj Patel of ­Credit ­Suisse finishes third. In January, Patel predicted that, owing to their attractive valuation levels, growth stocks would continue to outperform relatively pricier ­value stocks, although the spread would not be as wide as last year’s 7.8 percentage point margin. As of mid-­September growth stocks had outpaced ­value by 2.9 percentage points. “His research cuts through a lot of the noise in the quant world, focusing on factors that ­really matter in the long run,” says one buy-side ­­enthusiast.

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