< The 2015 All-Japan Research Team
Yoshiyasu Okihira
SMBC Nikko Securities
First-place appearances: 0
Total appearances: 5
Analyst debut: 2005
SMBC Nikko Securities’ Yoshiyasu Okihira bounds from runner-up to second place, marking his strongest showing to date and first top-three finish since his 2005 debut at No. 3. The 45-year-old analyst monitors 28 Japanese beverages, food and tobacco shares, up two over the past year. He is bullish on the sector overall, primarily thanks to the robust results that processed-food manufacturers are posting on the back of rising prices. “Relative performance of these stocks to Topix shows strong correlation with the change in the consumer price index. So far, CPI still shows a positive trend, so this would help the performance,” he says. “Domestic inflation is still key since Abenomics started, and for investors that inflation should be more structural, not cyclical. From this viewpoint the beer tax reform coming this summer represents an important chance for makers to get away from the cheap pricing war.” Among Okihira’s favorite names is beer and beverages producer Asahi Group Holdings of Tokyo. He began touting the shares in February 2013, when management announced that it would beef up shareholder returns as part of its medium-term business plan. More recently, he notes, “since the start of 2014, it has gradually become clear that Asahi’s market share has risen in the beer industry on growing expectations for a revision of the liquor tax, while in the soft-drinks industry the company has started to clearly boost its position as the third-largest player amid unfavorable weather this year in Japan,” which has an impact on raw-materials prices. Ultimately, says Okihira, “as Asahi’s position grows domestically, it could become a takeover target in the global beer and/or soft-drinks industry. I think it’s important that management is increasingly focused on supporting a high share price.” Late in March the stock was trading at ¥3,908, having rocketed 94.6 percent since he first recommended buying it and outdistanced its Japanese peers by 24.1 percentage points.
