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The 2014 All-Japan Research Team: Broadcasting, No. 1: Shinsuke Iwasa

< The 2014 All-Japan Research Team
Shinsuke Iwasa
Mizuho Securities Group
First-Place Appearances: 6

Total Appearances: 8

Analyst Debut: 2007

Mizuho Securities Group researcher Shinsuke Iwasa, 41, held the top position for four years before dropping to second last year, following his departure from UBS in June 2012. He is back in the lead now and winning praise for being "incredibly reliable as a credible source" and delivering "consistency in performance over the years," according to one fund manager. Clients also appreciate Iwasa's in-depth knowledge of the entire media space. He covers 11 names — five broadcasters, two advertising agencies and four Internet-related companies — and advises caution on the group. "The rise in share prices which started in 2013 has created much higher valuations than in other sectors," he says. Japan's media shares rocketed 64.6 percent last year, besting the broad market by 12.7 percentage points. "The pace of share price increase has been rapid," Iwasa adds, "but we find it difficult to be optimistic about short-term news." Earnings for the fourth fiscal quarter, ended in March, are unlikely to be strong enough to trigger higher full-year targets, he warns, and the April consumption tax hike from 5 percent to 8 percent could set off a reactive market downturn. "We believe monthly sales volume could decline from April to May and July to August," the analyst says. "We recommend an investment stance of buying on dips, and investors should see July, when news flow is likely to be negative, as a good time for investment from a medium-term perspective." By mid-March, Japanese media stocks had given back 14.1 percent, against the broad market's 11 percent drop.

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