< The 2016 All-Asia Research Team
David Cui, Ajay Kapur & team
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
First-place appearances: 1
Total appearances: 11
Team debut: 2000
Claiming third-place honors is the Bank of America Merrill Lynch crew co-piloted by David Cui and Ajay Kapur, which landed at No. 2 last year. Cui, 48, also leads, with Hong (Helen) Qiao, the second-place squad on the China lineup. Stationed in Hong Kong and Singapore, these six strategists win the esteem of one buy-side fan for their long experience in the region and for providing a “combination of bottom-up and top-down work on China,” which helped them to make “an early forecast that 2015 would be a bad year.” After having been bearish on Asia, and emerging markets generally, over the past five years, the BofA Merrill team has shifted course and is now advising clients to stake out a bullish position over a longer horizon on both Asia ex-Japan and emerging-markets equities, believing that the region is at a tipping point. Valuations are attractive, currencies are more competitive, and China’s monetary easing is “gaining traction,” explains Kapur, 51. In addition, “most emerging markets have cut capital expenditures in the past five years, which leads to higher future margins, and Asia’s rising terms of trade should boost profit margins,” he points out. The squad projects earnings growth for Asia ex-Japan at an achievable 3.8 percent. Given this backdrop, the researchers recommend that investors reverse course and unload growth and defensive sectors and buy cyclicals and value stocks. That means making longer-term bets on the defense, Internet and tourism spaces; environment-related plays, such as new energy and water; and large nonfinancial state-owned enterprises, including some oil and gas concerns.