The passage of a one-year extension to the federal renewable energy production tax credits doesn't resolve long-term concerns, insiders say. Mark Ahlstrom, ceo of consultancy WindLogics in St. Paul, Minn., says chatter at the American Wind Energy Association Fall Symposium in Phoenix was that the extension is a positive, but the industry really wants the stability offered by an extension of several years.
"It may end up giving us less traction to ask for a longer-term extension in the new legislative session," Ahlstrom says.
For bankers, there is a little more flexibility. "We were working on the assumption that we'd have to get everything done before the second half of the year. We're not in a rush anymore," says one New York wind banker.
Ahlstrom doesn't expect the extension to significantly alter the buildout in 2007, which AWEA estimates to be between 3-3.5 GW. Builders hadn't been panicking, he notes, as many had been putting down money for turbines through 2008 and 2009, betting on a PTC extension.
The turbine backlog persists despite the recent moves by Gamesa, Suzlon and other foreign manufacturers to move some of their production to the U.S. Long-term PTC uncertainty makes suppliers hesitant, too. A Suzlon official explains that manufacturers don't want to be caught oversupplying in a market where demand drops suddenly due to an absence of PTCs. The official said it's too soon to tell if the extension will mean more purchase orders.