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Macro 2009 EMEA Research Team
Katya Malofeeva, praised by clients for her “no-nonsense approach” and “willingness to avoid the bandwagon view,” shepherds the Renaissance Capital trio to a second straight appearance at No. 1.
Economics/Emerging EMEA Markets
Katya Malofeeva & team Renaissance
second teamReinhard Cluse & team UBS
third team (tie)Michael Marrese & team J.P. Morgan; Martin Blum, Vladimir Osakovsky & team UniCredit
runners-upRadoslaw Bodys, Turker Hamzaoglu & team BofA–Merrill Lynch; Arend Kapteyn & team Deutsche; Charles Robertson & team ING; Evgeny Gavrilenkov & team Troika
Katya Malofeeva, praised by clients for her “no-nonsense approach” and “willingness to avoid the bandwagon view,” shepherds the Renaissance Capital trio to a second straight appearance at No. 1. In November, with the Russian economy in a tailspin thanks to plunging oil prices and frozen credit markets, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin unveiled an economic stimulus package that included, among other incentives, a reduction of the corporate profit tax, to promote investment, and a 30 percent increase in state-sector salaries, to boost consumer spending. Many economists cheered the news, but the RenCap team told investors not to get their hopes up: “It is unlikely the economy will respond to this package with stellar growth.” It hasn’t. Year-over-year real gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter skidded from an annualized 9.5 percent to 2.0 percent. Moscow-based Malofeeva, 36, “is head and shoulders above the competition,” cheers one buy-sider. The UBS quartet led by London-based Reinhard Cluse rises one rung to second place, thanks to “insightful research, clear and unambiguous writing, and approachability,” in the words of one money manager. The team alerted investors in August to a policy shift at central banks serving emerging markets, with bankers more concerned about stimulating growth than controlling inflation; it predicted that the cycle of interest rate hikes would end and a period of rate cuts would begin. It also correctly predicted that Israel’s rates would rise one more time before beginning to fall; the Bank of Israel raised its benchmark overnight lending rate by 25 basis points in September, to 4.25 percent, before joining many of the region’s other central banks in reducing rates. Unranked since 2005, the J.P. Morgan Securities squad helmed by New York–based Michael Marrese shares third-place honors with the previously unranked UniCredit Global Research team co-led by Martin Blum in Vienna and Vladimir Osakovsky in Moscow. J.P. Morgan’s team of ten provides a “comprehensive approach,” according to one client, while UniCredit’s troupe of 12 is lauded for “in-depth understanding of each economy” in the region, as one investor puts it.
Equity Strategy/Emerging EMEA Markets
Roland Nash & team Renaissance
second teamMichael Hartnett & team BofA–Merrill Lynch
third teamMark Robinson & team UniCredit
runners-upAlexander Redman Credit Suisse; Marianna Kozintseva & team J.P. Morgan; Stephen Mo & team UBS
Holding on to the top spot for a second year running is the Renaissance Capital trio captained by Roland Nash, who also leads the No. 1 team in Russia. Nash, 36, is “the best strategist in Russia — he doesn’t get drawn in by the daily noise of the market,” says one investor. In July, as the global financial crisis was worsening, the Moscow-based team told clients that “events have made a mockery of our year-end target of 3,000” for the Russian Trading System index, which would move into “firmly negative territory for the year.” It sure did. The index plunged 67.6 percent by December 31, finishing the year at 631.89. New York–based Michael Hartnett steers the Banc of America Securities–Merrill Lynch foursome up one notch to second place. The analysts win praise for their “innovative use of data,” as one client puts it, such as their “Global Fund Managers Survey,” which overlays investor sentiment on macroeconomic factors to produce buy and sell signals. The team’s May report showed record pessimism on emerging-markets stocks, resulting in a sell recommendation; by the end of January, the MSCI emerging Europe and Middle East index had crumpled 60.6 percent. Newcomer Mark Robinson guides the UniCredit Global Research team to a third-place debut. The four-member crew, with offices in London and Moscow, urged investors in July to overweight Czech stocks and underweight Russian stocks, because of the former’s diversified economy and the latter’s dependence on oil prices. By January 31 the Czech Republic’s stock market had outperformed other emerging markets’ by 15.1 percentage points, and the RTS index had underperformed by 16.2 percentage points.
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