White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten has wasted no time in making a number of personnel moves. Tony Snow has replaced Scott McClellan as spokesman. Bush confidante Karl Rove has been reassigned, and former Trade Representative Rob Portman has become director of the Office of Management and Budget. Rumors continue to swirl that Treasury Secretary John Snow will soon step down. At the margins, the changes could help the White House mend fences with congressional Republicans in advance of November’s mid-term elections. But as an indicator of policy direction, there is less to these changes than meets the eye.
With fewer than 1000 days remaining for the Bush presidency, Bolten has acted to revitalize the administration and to appease restive Republican lawmakers eager to reverse a downward trend in perception of the GOP. But only in one sense can these changes be called a “shakeup": Bush and Bolten have essentially shaken a “snow globe.” They have created the appearance of movement and change, but once everything settles, the landscape will appear virtually unchanged. Tony Snow is settling in, and John Snow will probably soon be gone.
Those hoping for an infusion of new ideas can only be disappointed. The ouster of McClellan will change the White House messenger but not its message. New budget director Portman is an administration veteran. His former deputy, Susan Schwab, has replaced him as trade representative. Karl Rove has simply moved across the hall, retaining his titles – senior adviser to the president and deputy chief of staff – and his access to President Bush. The man who has assumed Rove’s responsibilities for day-to-day policy management is Bolten’s former deputy, Joel Kaplan.
In addition, those with the greatest influence within the administration will remain in place. Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld may feel increased pressure to step aside after November’s mid-term elections. But until then, the president will continue to brush aside calls for their resignations. Though Democrats have characterized Rove’s reduced portfolio as a “demotion,” his reassignment says more about the president’s determination to keep a friend and trusted aid close at hand than dissatisfaction with his influence on policy.
Bush and Bolten hope the move will relieve pressure from congressional Republicans who fear Rove has become an unacceptable political liability, while freeing him to focus on what he does best: luring conservative voters to the polls.
Helping Republicans retain control of both houses of congress has become “job one” for a White House facing increasingly strident attacks from Democrats. There is little the White House can do to shape events in Iraq or to reduce the price Americans pay for gasoline. But Rove’s efforts to highlight the president’s commitment to reinforce the U.S.-Mexican border will help inoculate the administration against charges of inaction on illegal immigration as election-year politics
stall more substantive reform efforts.
Bolten’s personnel changes also reflect the rising premium that an embattled White House places on loyalty. During a meeting with staff on April 17, his first official day on the job, Bolten made clear that anyone considering leaving the team this year should do so as soon as
possible. But the message is intended only for rank-and-file administration officials, mainly disgruntled mid-level appointees and career bureaucrats within key departments and agencies-particularly the Pentagon, State Department, and the intelligence community.
The president’s low public approval ratings and the approach of the administration’s final days will discourage many outsiders from joining the team. As a result, a number of mid-level government positions will likely remain unfilled or reassigned to long-term acting officials. This bodes ill for the policy process on all but the most pressing issues-though top administration priorities will continue to receive high-level attention.
In reality, the recent flurry of personnel moves has less to do with the approach of January 2009 than with November 2006. As mid-term elections loom, the White House and senior Republican lawmakers hope for better strategic communication and coordination. In that regard, the reshuffling may show results-with some implications for economic and trade policy.
The shift of Portman from trade czar to budget director deprives the White House of a strong pro-trade voice with considerable experience in Congress. The expected move to replace Treasury Secretary Snow – assuming a suitable replacement can be found – would sideline an advocate of moderation on trade policy toward China. The result is likely to be a modest administration tilt in favor of the current congressional trend toward protectionism. This change will be broadly negative for advocates of a strong dollar, and for those who hope to water down both punitive trade legislation aimed at Beijing and efforts to reform the process by which foreign investments in U.S. assets are investigated and approved.
Politically speaking, replacing John Snow with a more effective salesman for a strong U.S. economy could help the administration win credit for a surging stock market, stable interest rates and inflation numbers, and unemployment that has hovered between 5 and 5.5 percent for more than a year and a half.
Bolten is expected to make more personnel changes soon. Republicans will talk of reinvigoration, Democrats of Titanic deck chairs. None of these moves will substantially alter the administration’s policy direction-unless voters decide in November on a shakeup of their own.
Ian Bremmer is president and founder of Eurasia Group, a global political risk consultancy based in New York.