Many U.S. asset managers have looked at the dollars movements over the past decade and concluded that there is no point in hedging because over time its kind of a wash, says Alan Kosan, head of alpha investment research at Darien, Connecticutbased advisory shop Segal Rogerscasey. Kosans firm and other specialists in currency risk dont share that view.
James Wood-Collins, CEO of U.K.based Record Currency Management, says that just five years ago U.S. pension funds would have had a strong bias toward U.S. equities and used the Standard & Poors 500 Index as their primary benchmark. But more recently, many U.S. asset managers have substantially increased the level of global stocks in their portfolios, so their currency exposure is far higher. Jay Love, Atlanta-based partner at investment advisory firm Mercer, says his companys surveys of U.S. institutional investors clearly show that there is a significant movement away from U.S.-centric investments toward more-globalized portfolios.
According to Wood-Collins, whose firm has $32.5 billion under management: We generally find that an international equity managers job is to be expert at equities. They all have different models, but relatively few equity managers would claim to be currency experts.
Firms like Russell and Record offer two basic currency management programs to institutional investors. One is passive hedging aimed at reducing the currency exposure risk of a particular portfolio. If a fund manager is heavily invested in Europe, for example, the currency manager would sell euro forwards to reduce the risk. The second option is investing in currencies themselves as a separate source of excess return. For many years theres been a debate about whether foreign currency constitutes a separate asset class. But even if that argument never gets settled, buying a basket of foreign currencies is now like investing in equities and bonds.
Wood-Collins estimates that 80 percent of his firms business is in passive hedging, but he says U.S. asset managers are showing more interest in active management, which Record calls dynamic hedging. A successful passive hedging program can reduce volatility in a portfolio by about 2 percent and add an average of 1 percent a year in returns over the long term, Wood-Collins explains.
Once a month or so, Record looks at its clients portfolios to see whether their currency exposure has changed and then buys currency forwards to cover that exposure. Wood-Collins says monthly analysis is probably best because more-frequent hedging runs up transaction costs.
Ian Toner, head of currency implementation at $159.1 billion-in-assets Russell, contends that active currency management makes more sense than passive hedging. Asset managers generally dont choose what bonds to buy based on the equities they hold in their portfolios; similarly, they shouldnt choose currencies based on whats in their equity portfolio. For example, an asset manager with a portfolio that is 30 percent in European equities would hedge that position by selling euro forwards for 30 percent of the portfolios value, Toner says. But thats wrongheaded, he asserts, because it doesnt represent a neutral bet on currencies.
Instead, Toner urges clients to adopt what he calls a conscious currency program that buys forwards based on existing global foreign exchange benchmarks such as Deutsche Banks DB Currency Return Index. You should decide whether you are overweight or underweight not relative to the equity markets but relative to the currency benchmark, he says. You can either replicate the market or do better than the market.
Wood-Collins says his firms dynamic hedging program works differently, only going long the clients base currency and never shorting more than 100 percent of currency exposure. It uses a proprietary trend-following model to purchase hedges day-to-day based on the clients actual assets, not a benchmark. The trend-following model tries to predict where currencies are heading, so it sometimes leaves portfolios unhedged when it expects the base currency to appreciate.
The bottom line is that investors should recognize the impact that currencies have on their portfolios, says Segal Rogerscaseys Kosan. Managing currency through a strategic hedging policy or an active management program has the benefit of reducing volatility and preserves diversification.