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The 2014 All-America Research Team: Portfolio Strategy, No. 1: François Trahan
Total Appearances: 11
Analyst Debut: 2004
François Trahan extends his dominance of this lineup to a third consecutive year, and in so doing secures his eighth top finish since 2005. Portfolio managers readily explain the Cornerstone Macro co-founders staying power. I always pay attention to his views, remarks one client, because he organizes a lot of information to evaluate market fundamentals and provides useful insights into the structure of the markets. For his part, the 45-year-old strategist notes that the S&P 500 index has been rising on the back of both earnings and price-earnings ratios, which he dubs a rare historical occurrence. This circumstance transpired just one other time over the past 40 years, he says, at the end of the 1990s. Its a unique market, where returns tend to be outsize and corrections shallow and short, explains Trahan. When theres a growth scare and earnings dip, you still have P/Es going for you. And vice versa. If you have an inflation scare and P/Es are under pressure, you still have earnings going for you. Moreover, volatility is extremely low, and the current environment appears to be sustainable. The analysts bottom line: We have been and remain very bullish.