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The 2014 All-Japan Research Team: Currency & Foreign Exchange, No. 1: Taisuke Tanaka

< The 2014 All-Japan Research Team
Taisuke Tanaka
Deutsche Securities
First-Place Appearances: 2

Total Appearances: 2

Analyst Debut: 2013

It's two years in a row at the top for Deutsche Securities' Taisuke Tanaka, who "has been invaluable in his coverage of the yen," according to one advocate. Japan's currency was trading at 102.45 against the dollar in mid-March, and it will rise, Tanaka advises, as long as the U.S. continues to produce a firm cyclical rebound. The 53-year-old strategist forecasts that U.S. real gross domestic product growth will accelerate to 3.3 percent this year, up from a year-over year gain of 1.9 percent in 2013, driving the yen down to a range of 110 to 115. This trend should hold for several years, he believes. "As the steadier U.S. economy helps the world economy to recover, many emerging-markets currencies can gradually become stable," Tanaka notes. In this more risk-familiar market, moreover, a so-called safe currency such as the yen – which tends to strengthen when the global economic situation worsens and weaken when it improves — can be expected to depreciate further, he explains. Against this backdrop, the researcher recommends pairing yen shorts with long positions on select emerging-markets currencies that "can produce more stably favorable returns," he says, or with dollar longs. Investors appreciate Tanaka's broad understanding. "I enjoy his thematic insights," declares a second supporter.

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