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2015 All-Latin America Research Team: Local Markets Strategy, No. 1: Ilan Goldfajn, Ciro Matuo & team

< The 2015 Latin America Research Team
Ilan Goldfajn,
Ciro Matuo & teamItaú BBAFirst-Place Appearances: 3

Total Appearances: 4

Team Debut: 2012

For a third year running, Itaú BBA occupies this winner’s circle. Under the guidance of Ilan Goldfajn and Ciro Matuo, its four-strong squad in São Paulo impresses investors by providing what one money manager describes as “valuable economic analysis and high-quality research.” Given ongoing uncertainties regarding commodities prices and the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate hikes, the team is recommending that clients favor paying positions in Latin American long yields, as well as short exposure on higher-beta currencies in the region. In particular, they are touting payers in five-year Colombian interbank rate swaps, steepeners in Brazil and Mexico, and a trade that shorts the Brazilian real–Colombian peso cross rate, says Matuo. “We have been expecting some improvement in activity in developed markets and a stabilization in commodities prices, leading to reduced fears of global secular stagnation and deflation,” he explains. “The upshot for the markets is an upshift in rates on the long end of the yield curve and a stronger U.S. dollar, as the date for the Fed’s liftoff draws near.” This isn’t the only honor for Matuo, 42, who also oversees the second-place team in Corporate Debt. Similarly, Goldfajn, 49, also directs the No. 3 crew on the Economics roster and a group that merits a runner-up position on the Sovereign Debt lineup.


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