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2016 All-Japan Research Team: Energy & Utilities, No. 2: Reiji Ogino

At No. 2 on this list is Reiji Ogino, who captured the same spot the past two years and impresses one investor as “a wealth of information.”

Reiji Ogino
Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co.
First-Place Appearances: 0

Total Appearances: 9

Analyst Debut: 2008

At No. 2 on this list is Reiji Ogino, who captured the same spot the past two years and impresses one investor as “a wealth of information.” The Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. researcher reports on 22 Japanese energy and utilities names. He is optimistic that the fundamentals of the electric power industry will continue to improve, on the back of an “increasing number of nuclear reactor restarts that should lead to lower fuel costs for thermal power generation.” At the same time, however, the deregulation of the retail electric power market that began this month represents the primary risk for suppliers, he says, with fierce sales competition anticipated in the major metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya. Turning his attention to the oil companies, Ogino, 44, points to consolidation as a significant driver. Late last year four of the nation’s five largest oil refiners arranged M&A deals. In mid-November, Idemitsu Kosan Co. and Showa Shell Sekiyu K.K., the second- and fifth-largest players, agreed to merge; three weeks later, No. 1 JX Holdings announced its intention to take over No. 3 TonenGeneral Sekiyu K.K. Both transactions are projected to be completed by April 2017. As a whole, this activity should support improved petroleum product spreads, he believes, owing to tighter supply-demand fundamentals. Overall, the analyst’s most preferred stock is Chugoku Electric Power Co. Assuming that the Hiroshima-based concern’s Shimane Nuclear Power Plant No. 2 reactor will restart in July 2016 and reduce fuel costs, he forecasts that recurring profit will rise to ¥89.5 billion ($791 million) for the next fiscal year, up more than sixfold from his ¥13 billion estimate for the fiscal period that began this month.


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