Donald Trump’s plan to somehow make Greenland part of the United States is destined to fail, given both opposition from Denmark and locals — but the move is likely to spur policy changes to encourage investments and develop mining opportunities of the island’s bountiful mineral reserves.
Originally floated during the first Trump administration in 2019, sources say the lofty plan will encourage the Greenlandic government to amend rules that have long discouraged foreign investment.
“The new administration is forthright, no one can deny that,” said Charlie Byrd, investment manager at Cordiant Capital, a global infrastructure and real assets manager that includes the largest mining company in Greenland among its holdings.
“To date, the policy development and the administrative element of the mining industry in Greenland has not been forthright. If anything it has been slow and often impossible to interpret, because it can change,” he said.
But Byrd added that a nudge from the new administration may result in much needed clarity.
“If they're able to do that then it will create a landscape where policy is clearer and therefore timelines, expectations, returns become clearer too,” he added. “There is no doubt that that would lead to bigger institutional involvement and more strategic investment.”
The issue that mining organizations are facing is how to move from exploration to exploitation, because companies face a long and burdensome application and permit process. The resulting uncertainty has left junior mining companies, which focus on early stage exploration and feasibility studies, without access to capital to fund expensive operations, and has dampened the appetite of strategic and institutional investors.
Some mining players with operations in Greenland include Amaroq Minterals, Critical Metals, and Greenland Resources.
“If forecasts are correct, there's enough minerals for America, Europe, everyone within Greenland. It's about providing a robust framework that enables investors derisked and diversified access to those minerals,” said Byrd. “There is a chance that pressure applied by the U.S. government might deliver that, because I don't think that pressure has been delivered by the European Union. It's been discussed, but I don’t think it's been delivered.”
Make Greenland America (Again)
In his inaugural speech, President Trump made explicit mention of desires to reclaim the Panama Canal and rename the Gulf of Mexico. There was no mention of the proposed ‘purchase’ of the island of Greenland from Denmark at the official inauguration ceremony, but both did indeed surface while he was answering questions from the press in the Oval office later in the day.
Earlier this month, Republican Congressman Andy Ogles led a group of House colleagues to introduce the Make Greenland Great Again Act, which supports the bid to acquire the island.
In the Oval Office, Trump said “we need Greenland for international security, and I’m sure that Denmark will come along.” However, since then, Greenland’s prime minister Múte Egede said the island has no intention of becoming American.
Mining companies in Greenland, obviously critical for any investmenst, echo the sentiment. Bent Olsvig Jensen, managing director at Lumina Sustainable Materials, an active mining company in Greenland, told II that “in general the Greenlandic politicians and the Greenlandic population’s stance is that Greenland is really not for sale.” Although 70 percent of Lumina’s operations are currently in Greenland, the company is headquartered in the U.S., including its research and innovation arm.
Despite this, the company remains Greenlandic in its ethos and is indicative of Greenlandic patriotism.
Bent added “If the U.S. wants to do business with Greenland, by all means get in the game. Greenland will be ready and receptive for such an initiative, but it is not, in general, in the public interest to become U.S. citizens. “I think that that would be to going too far.”
He went on to say there is a lively debate taking place in Greenland right now among residents, and between the Greenlandic and Danish governments about how to position the interests of the island. Even though officials have long talked about the timing of any prospective independence vote, Bent stressed that Trump has picked the right time to “poke” as a referendum is imminent.
“I think we will find that when it comes to it, the Greelandian politicians, as well as the Danish ones, will actually come closer rather than be divided,” said Bent, adding that measures to improve trade between the U.S. and Greenland would be beneficial for both.
Motivations and Manipulations, but Positive Outcomes
The prospect of moving from a territory of a European Union member state involved in independence discussions within the NATO umbrella, to life as part of the U.S. is not particularly attractive to the people of Greenland. And many believe the proposals from the White House are simply noise and bluster.
Trump claims the island is a key strategic location for the country, arguing only the U.S. can provide protection from Russia and China. In fact, the U.S. is already present on the island, with Denmark allowing the use of the territory to monitor and protect the arctic circle. Reports suggest the Danish government is aware it has neglected defense of the island and that there are legitimate concerns the land could be used to launch attacks against the U.S.
“There are pretty well written defense charters that are decades old that allow the U.S. quite good freedom and maneuver, which is why they have such a strong military presence on the island,” said Byrd.
The more likely reason behind the land grab, which Trump first brought up in 2019, is the potential gains from the vast amounts of minerals on the island. Some 80 percent of Greenland is covered by ice, and huge swathes of that remain unexplored. However, a 2023 survey found that 25 of the 34 minerals deemed as critical by the European Commission have already been discovered, with anorthosite – Lumina’s flagship mineral known for its role in sustainable development – particularly abundant.
Lumina’s mine is based 300 kilometers north of the capital Nuuk (pictured). There is an open pit mine with a processing plant right next to the waterfront. It is the only fully permitted operational mine on the territory, although there is a gold mine that has been allowed to run in the South that is still awaiting final permits. Other potential mineral resources include aluminum, silica, potassium, and iron.
“With that we can provide products that are beneficial for various industries, both in Europe and in in America, especially for CO2 reducing processes,” said Jensen.
Regardless of the outcome, the attention provides a real opportunity for Greenland to negotiate its way into significant trade agreements, even though the specter of tariffs is looming across the world. However, sources say, the tariffs may well be used as a weapon with which to try to force Danish and Greenlandic hands.
“There is undeniably a need for the U.S. to shore up its mineral provisions so that it is more stable,” said Byrd. “Both operationally and politically, it needs to move away from China. The end goal is to provide the west with a stable and reliable supply of a plethora of minerals and to benefit the supply chain.”
That goal does not have to be achieved by attempts to recreate the Louisiana Purchase.
