According to a survey conducted by University of Thai Chamber of Commerce, the growing political uncertainty has started showing its effect in the business sector. UTCC’s Economic and Business Forecasting Center’s Director, Thanawat Polvichai, said that majority of the 600 entrepreneurs surveyed, between March 6-20, said that they could bear the brunt of the continuing political tension for only three months. The business sector has already begun to signal a slowdown, with local consumption declining by 5%-10% per month. The survey shows that tourism is likely to decline by 5%-10% this year as a direct result of the political situation. The respondents felt that if the current political turmoil ends within three months, the economy would grow by 4%-4.5% in 2006. However, if the situation drags on, GDP is likely to grow at 3%-3.5%. Polvichai added that if the current political situation persists towards the second half of the year, GDP growth would have to be revised. However, if it ended in the current half, GDP would grow around 4% or higher.
