< The 2015 All-Europe Research Team

2015-03-tom-johnson-all-europe-research-team-andreas-neubauer.jpg

Andreas Neubauer & team
Deutsche Bank
First-Place Appearances: 20

Total Appearances: 30

Team Debut: 1992

This year, Deutsche Bank earns its 20th No. 1 ranking for its coverage of German equities. The firm has continuously led the pack since 50-year-old Andreas Neubauer debuted, in 2002, and has slipped from first place only once over the past 20 years, when it claimed the No. 2 position in 1996. The team tracks 155 German stocks, an increase of seven over the past year, and impresses clients with its combination of bulge-bracket strength and local footprint. “They’re more of a global franchise,” acknowledges one Paris-based fund manager. “Like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, they bring global insights and a pan-European view to the table. But at the same time, they’re unbeatable on their home turf.” One current favorite of Neubauer and his colleagues is Stuttgart-based automaker Daimler. The parent company of Mercedes-Benz should get a positive bump, Neubauer says, from “several new product launches in Daimler’s car business that should support top-line growth.” Moreover, the truck division, which is enjoying double-digit cash flow margins as measured by earnings before interest and taxes, “continues to be driven by the North American Free Trade Agreement,” he adds. Truck orders through the autumn were “very solid,” Neubauer notes, further providing “confidence to the 2015 outlook.” Although Latin America remains a roadblock for truck sales, the researchers foresee sufficient catalysts to pick up the slack. For example, the broader European market should rebound à la the recovery seen in the U.S., they believe, and demand for replacement trucks is pent up — the fleet age in Europe is at a record-high six years, Neubauer reports. He and his colleagues also expect the manufacturer’s dividends to grow this year in tandem with core earnings and, he emphasizes, “well ahead of Daimler’s European peers.” The shares closed January at €80.48, and the Deutsche crew believes that a price of €92 is justified.