The buy side says: “Ivy is the queen of homebuilding.”
Ivy Zelman reclaims the crown that she held from 1999 through 2004 and in 2006 and 2007 while at Credit Suisse, before opening her own firm, Zelman & Associates, in 2008. The 44-year-old analyst, who spent the past two years in second place, has become famous for her bearishness, prompting one money manager to quip: “If she ever becomes positive on the sector, people will pay attention.” Zelman hasn’t turned positive yet, but investors are paying attention - and cheering her recommendations. In August 2009 she downgraded Chicago-based building-materials manufacturer USG Corp. from neutral to sell, at $15.94, citing the slowdown in the nonresidential construction market, on which the company depends for roughly half of its revenue. In July, after the stock had tumbled 23.2 percent, to $12.24, Zelman elevated it to hold, on valuation. By the end of August, it had barely moved, closing the month at $12.17. Another winner: Back in April 2008, Zelman downgraded Standard Pacific Corp. from neutral to sell, at $5.41, on the belief that the Irvine, California-based homebuilder’s high valuation was “not sustainable.” It sure wasn’t. By late August 2010 the share price had plunged 35.5 percent, to $3.49. “One thing that Ivy brings to the table is the depth, breadth and quality of her network - she’s got a golden Rolodex,” marvels one booster.
