The buy side says: “Ma makes spot-on predictions.”
Deutsche Bank’s Jun Ma, 46, debuts in first place. In October the economist, a former research fellow at China’s Development Research Center of the State Council (a government think tank), told investors to expect a flurry of M&A activity in the health care sector, and among the companies he predicted would benefit from a reduction in the number of rivals was drugmaker Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., at 17.74 yuan. By late May, Fosun’s shares had advanced 25.7 percent, to 22.30 yuan, and beaten Shanghai’s A-share stock price index by 40.4 percentage points.
Ma joined Deutsche in 2000 from the World Bank; he earned a Ph.D. in economics from Washington, D.C.’s Georgetown University in 1994.
Second Team
Mingchun Sun Nomura
In second place is Mingchun Sun of Nomura, who doubles as the firm’s director of China research. Sun presciently highlighted consumer-spending growth in May 2009 and recommended likely beneficiaries such as Baoding, Hebei–based Great Wall Motor Co., which makes pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles, at HK$5.55. By the end of May 2010, the stock had sped to HK$13.98, a heart-stopping 151.9 percent gain. “His call appeared aggressive initially but turned out to be correct,” marvels one supporter.
Third Team
Qing Wang Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley’s Qing Wang, who takes third, “explains concepts logically, without jargon, which helps us reach decisions,” attests one ally. In May 2009, Wang pointed to western and central China as less-developed regions poised for rapid growth, particularly with regard to rising demand for automobiles, and recommended overweighting local automaker Dongfeng Motor Group Co. of Wuhan, Hubei, at HK$6.88. A year later the stock had jumped 37.6 percent, to HK$9.47. Wang “is a thought leader,” cheers one investor.
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View the complete results of the 2010 All-China Research Team Rankings