Technology, Media & Telecoms

Claiming top honors for the first time since 2000 is the five-strong Banc of America Securities–Merrill Lynch squad.

Media Julien Roch & team BofA–Merrill Lynch

second team Polo Tang & team UBS

third team Nicholas Bertolotti & team Credit Suisse

runners-up Paul Reynolds & team Deutsche; Filippo Lo Franco & team J.P. Morgan; Sarah Simon, Patrick Wellington & team Morgan Stanley; Colin Tennant & team Nomura

Claiming top honors for the first time since 2000 is the five-strong Banc of America Securities–Merrill Lynch squad. Under the direction of Julien Roch , the team wins praise for “linking critical, worldwide data and events that have an impact on European equities,” according to one money manager. Calling consumer publishers and broadcasters “structurally challenged and cyclical,” the team downgraded Edinburgh’s Johnston Press, the U.K.’s second-biggest newspaper publisher, and Independent News & Media, a Dublin-based conglomerate, to underperform in June. By December 31 the stocks were trailing the sector by 63.1 and 59.3 percentage points, respectively. Roch, 39, earned an MBA at France’s Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales in 1993 and worked at Lehman Brothers as a media analyst before joining Merrill in 2003. Climbing one rung to second place is the six-member UBS team steered by Polo Tang , who, according to one client, provides “exceptional access to management.” Anticipating a slowdown in advertising, the team downgraded Britain’s ITV to sell in March, at 67.90p; by year-end the stock had plunged 41.5 percent, to 39.75p. The five-analyst Credit Suisse team guided by Nicholas Bertolotti , which advances from runner-up to third, “excels at incisive, long-term, ‘forensic’ reports,” declares one buy-sider. Case in point: the team’s March report, “Stormy Waters,” which predicted that a sharp drop in earnings at media companies throughout the European Union would result in plummeting stock prices. The MSCI EU media index fell 25.5 percent in local currency terms in the final nine months of 2008.

Technology/Semiconductors

Nicolas Gaudois & team UBS

second team Sandeep Deshpande & team J.P. Morgan

third team Janardan Menon & team Dresdner Kleinwort

runner-up Jonathan Crossfield BofA–Merrill Lynch

UBS, unranked in this sector since 2005, shoots straight to the top, led by 38-year-old Nicolas Gaudois , who piloted the Deutsche Bank squad to No. 1 in 2007 and joined UBS in June. The two-member team is applauded for “sounding the warning notes early — and they paid off,” insists one grateful buy-sider. The analysts downgraded STMicroelectronics to sell in September, at €8.15, citing margin pressure. Shares of the Swiss computer-chip manufacturer had plummeted 41.3 percent, to €4.78, by year-end. The J.P. Morgan Securities duo directed by Sandeep Deshpande slips one spot, to second place. The team broke with the consensus in April by downgrading Dutch etching-equipment developer ASML Holding to neutral. “Other analysts were talking up the stock while the fundamental outlook was deteriorating, but Sandeep’s people knew it wouldn’t last,” recalls one investor. ASML’s share price had tumbled 21.4 percent by December 31 but still beat the sector’s loss by 20.4 percentage points. Advancing from runner-up to third place is the three-member Dresdner Kleinwort team guided by Janardan Menon , which offers “some of the best information and most rational argumentation anywhere,” declares one client. In January 2008 the team reiterated its long-standing sell recommendation on ARM Holdings, a U.K.-based manufacturer of computer chips for cellular phones, on falling demand. The stock had sunk 15.4 percent by the end of the year.

Technology/Software

Michael Briest & team UBS

second team Raimo Lenschow & team BofA–Merrill Lynch

third team Gerardus Vos & team Citi

runners-up Mark Bryan & team Deutsche; James Dawson, Patrick Standaert & team Morgan Stanley

Leaping from runner-up to capture first-place honors for the first time is the UBS duo directed by Michael Briest , 36. The team offered what one money manager calls “a good, old-fashioned, outside-the-box observation” by recommending Autonomy Corp. in January 2008, at 905.00p, saying sales of the U.K.-based company’s data management and e-commerce applications would remain strong despite the faltering economy. The stock ended the year at 951.00p, a gain of 5.1 percent that outpaced the sector’s return by 28.1 percentage points. Briest, who earned a bachelor’s degree in economics at the University of Oxford in 1993, worked as a software analyst at Cazenove before joining UBS in 2000. Raimo Lenschow leads the two-member Banc of America Securities–Merrill Lynch team up one rung to second place. One impressed investor describes the analysts as “contrarian and prescient,” citing a June downgrade to sell on France’s Capgemini, an information-technology services provider, on falling demand. The stock had slumped 36.9 percent by December 31. Slipping two notches to third place is the three-strong Citi team, led since June by newcomer Gerardus Vos , following Marc Geall’s departure for Autonomy. Reasoning that economic uncertainty would prompt companies to cut spending on IT services, in September the team downgraded several providers to sell, including France’s Atos Origin, which by the end of the year had fallen 50.7 percent; U.K.-based Logica, down 46.2 percent; and Finland’s TietoEnator Corp., down 38.0 percent.

Telecommunications Equipment

Kulbinder Garcha & team Credit Suisse

second team Gareth Jenkins UBS

third team Roderick Hall & team J.P. Morgan

runners-up Sherief Bakr Citi; Timothy Boddy & team Goldman Sachs; Andrew Griffin & team

BofA–Merrill Lynch; Stuart Jeffrey & team Nomura

The four-strong Credit Suisse squad lands on top for a third straight year — and for the fifth time in the past six years. The team, under the direction of 31-year-old Kulbinder Garcha , wins praise for its global perspective, which, according to one money manager, “gives us a more coherent sense of the competitive landscape.” The analysts initiated coverage on U.S. handset manufacturer Motorola in June with an underperform rating, at $7.39, owing to fierce competition in the sluggish North American market. The share price had plunged 40.1 percent, to $4.43, by December 31. UBS spent the past four years in the runner-up position; newcomer Gareth Jenkins joined the firm from Deutsche Bank in December 2007 and finishes in second place. Jenkins, who covers the sector all by himself, is a “wizard when it comes to market share and no slouch on appraising managements’ ability to execute,” insists one happy client. The analyst downgraded Finland’s Nokia Corp., the world’s biggest mobile phone maker, from buy to sell in April, on declining sales. The share price had tumbled 39.3 percent by the end of the year. In third place is the previously unranked J.P. Morgan Securities trio led by Roderick Hall , who “knows the telecommunications industry better than most,” according to one buy-side supporter. In December 2007 the team initiated coverage with a sell rating on Germany’s Balda, which supplies components for iPhones. The group made the case that the stock was overvalued at €9.90. By year-end 2008 it had taken a 94.8 percent nosedive, to €0.51. During the same period the sector plunged 53.7 percent.

Telecommunications Services

Hannes Wittig & team J.P. Morgan

second team Nicholas Delfas & team Morgan Stanley

third team Laura Janssens & team UBS

runners-up Terence Sinclair & team Citi; Jan-Willem Brand, Justin Funnell & team Credit Suisse; Jesus Romero & team BofA–Merrill Lynch; Graeme Pearson & team Nomura

The seven-member J.P. Morgan Securities squad rockets from runner-up to capture the crown for the first time. The team, directed by Hannes Wittig following Raj Sinha’s August departure for HSBC Bank, enjoyed “a nearly flawless year,” according to one impressed client. Among the group’s successful calls was a January 2008 downgrade of Germany’s Deutsche Telekom to sell, at €15.08, on the belief that investors were too optimistic about the company’s near-term prospects. In July, after the stock had slumped 31.0 percent, to €10.40, the analysts upgraded it to neutral, on valuation. It finished the year up 3.4 percent, at €10.75. Wittig, 44, worked as a telecommunications analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort before moving to J.P. Morgan in 2006; he earned a master’s degree in politics and philosophy from Munich’s Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in 1992. Praised by one money manager for “demonstrating the strength of its convictions — and being proven right,” the Morgan Stanley quintet led by Nicholas Delfas repeats in second place. The team downgraded Vodafone Group, the world’s biggest wireless-services provider, from buy to sell in March, at 157.00p, after determining that the European Union’s plans to restrict charges on calls routed to cell phones would sharply reduce the company’s profits. Vodafone shares fell 17.8 percent by late July, to 129.00p, at which point the team upgraded the stock to neutral, on valuation. It finished the year at 139.00p. Unranked last year, the five-member UBS team finishes third. Led by Laura Janssens , who moved from Merrill Lynch in 2007, the analysts are “a great source of moneymaking ideas,” says one buy-sider, singling out the team’s May advice to buy U.K.-based data-services provider Inmarsat as a defensive play. Good call. By the end of the year, the stock had inched up 1.3 percent; the sector had tumbled 17.2 percent.

Return to the Best Analysts of the Year

Return to the All-Europe Research Team Rankings

Related