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Ed Hyman | Ed Hyman ISI SECOND TEAM David Rosenberg Merrill Lynch THIRD TEAM Nancy Lazar ISI |
Ed Hyman of ISI Group extends his winning streak to a record 29th year. The 63-year-old economist “is able to boil down recent economic data into a few bullet points and apply that to what is going on in the market in a timely fashion,” explains one impressed client. In January, Hyman predicted that the deepening housing slump and credit crisis would bridle U.S. economic growth over the following two years and drive up the unemployment rate to 7.0 percent. Real gross domestic product contracted in fourth-quarter 2006, compared with the previous quarter, and inched up only 0.9 percent in first-quarter 2007 before rebounding to 2.8 percent in the second quarter, according to the Department of Commerce. The unemployment rate rose from 4.9 percent in January to 6.1 percent in September, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch rises one rung to second place. “His daily ‘Morning Market Memo’ is required reading,” says an admiring investor. In August, Rosenberg predicted the U.S. government would launch “a much more aggressive and interventionist approach” in dealing with the credit crisis. Last month the government seized control of troubled mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, followed that with an $85 billion bailout of cash-strapped insurer American International Group, then approved a $700 billion rescue of the entire financial system. Hyman’s ISI Group colleague Nancy Lazar, who advances from runner-up to third place, “does great work on international economies,” insists one backer. In February, Lazar published “Eurozone Growth Likely to Slow Significantly,” owing to rising inflation and a drop in consumer spending. She was right: The region’s second-quarter real GDP growth slipped 0.2 percent, to 0.5 percent, from the previous quarter, according to statistical services provider Eurostat.
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