The Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, began their campaign for Germany’s September 18 election with a big lead in the polls, but they have run into their share of stumbling blocks. Among them: CDU leader Angela Merkel chose the Rolling Stones’ “Angie” as a theme song but failed to get copyright permission and had to drop it; the campaign issued conflicting messages (Merkel said she would raise the value-added tax by 2 percentage points, then named a candidate for Finance minister who opposes it); and the CDU suffered fallout from comments by CSU leader Edmund Stoiber, who belittled eastern Germans as “frustrated” voters who shouldn’t control the election. By summer’s end the race against Gerhard Schröder’s Social Democratic Party was tightening, with the only sure winners likely to be the bookies.
“We’re seeing a lot of interest for nonsports betting,” says Alexander Knopf, general manager of Austria-based EuroSportwetten.com, which claims to have been first to offer odds on the election, back in May. Early this month the payout on a CDU-CSU victory was E1.03 ($1.29) for each E1 wagered. The line was E1.06 for a E1 bet on Merkel’s becoming the new chancellor, while the odds were 9-to-1 against both Schröder’s retaining his job and his party’s winning.
U.K. spread betting companies, meanwhile, were focusing not on the ultimate winner but on the margin. Cantor Spreadfair had Merkel’s coalition gleaning between 40 and 44 percent of the vote, with most punters favoring the higher end of that scale. (August polls indicated that the CDU-CSU would win about 43 percent of the vote and the SPD about 30 percent.)
“Obviously, the anti-Europe faction in Britain is interested in seeing Mrs. Merkel’s party get an overall majority,” says Cantor spokesman David Buik. “They like her positions on simplifying taxation and lowering unemployment.” Merkel’s choice for Finance minister, Paul Kirchhof, has proposed the introduction of a 25 percent flat tax.
In Berlin an unscientific poll was taking place at BundesPresseStrand Bar, next to the lower house of Parliament. There patrons could “vote with the throat” (Wähle mit der Kehle) by ordering a pint of red for the SPD party color or black for the CDU. At the end of last month, SPD was leading the beer drinkers’ camp by a margin of 2,181 to 1,859.
