< The 2014 All-Europe Fixed-Income Research Team
For a fourth year running, Gilles Moec, 43, and Mark Wall, 41, shepherd their Deutsche Bank crew to the winner’s circle. The team’s five economists, all in London, are acclaimed for their “ability to put everything in place,” one loyalist remarks, “be it economic data, opinions or market developments.” In general, they expect policymakers to be “sure-footed enough to avoid any major tumbles, which means reasonably well-balanced markets,” Wall says. “The risk of a stumble is ever present, but risks overall look appreciably less worrisome than they did a year ago.” More specifically, financial services remain a big theme in 2014, they advise, given Europe’s push to implement a banking union and the anticipated publication late in the year of the results of the European Central Bank’s asset-quality review of institutional balance sheets across the Continent. Approaching decisions on potential intervention in the crisis countries of Greece and Portugal represent another area of concern, the squad counsels. Although official sector haircuts in Greece are unlikely, Wall reports, “the question is how much debt relief Europe can achieve without [them].” Similarly, he notes, “there is no clarity yet on Europe’s strategy to support Portugal beyond the end of its initial program,” which will be reached in June. The Deutsche analysts’ “research is thought-provoking and comprehensive,” observes another backer. |
