< The 2014 All-Europe Fixed-Income Research Team
Bank of America Merrill Lynch repeats in third place, despite an adjustment to the team’s leadership. Patrick Kersting began sharing leadership duties with newcomer Navann Ty in September, when former co-captain Davide Chiesa moved to Morgan Stanley. London-based Kersting and Ty also direct the No. 3 squad in High-Yield Retailing/Consumer Products, and Kersting pairs with Teofilo Lasarte in guiding a BofA Merrill troupe to No. 3 in High-Yield Manufacturing/General Industrials. Ty is singled out for “excellent modeling and forecasting skills,” in the words of one fund manager, and her group’s coverage of multinational steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal, in particular, earns client praise. In November, predicting improvements in the Luxembourg-based giant’s short-term credit ratings, the analysts upgraded its five-year credit default swaps from 30 percent overweight to 70 percent overweight, with the spread at 312 basis points. By the end of December, ArcelorMittal’s credit profile had indeed improved and the notes tightened to 230 basis points. They expect that spreads will continue to compress in 2014 as growth in European markets remains slow and liquidity stays high, Ty says. Going forward, she notes, “strong recovery estimates” lead her troupe to favor senior secured notes issued by New World Resources, a Netherlands-based producer of coking and thermal coal for Central Europe’s steel and energy industries. Last last year, Kersting moved on to assume other responsibilities at BofA Merrill. See also Patrick Kersting's profile in the 2013 All-Europe Fixed-Income Research Team. |