< The 2014 All-Europe Fixed-Income Research Team Daniel Lamy & team J.P. Morgan First-place appearances: 2
Total appearances: 4
Team debut: 2011 Holding on to second place is the J.P. Morgan team piloted by Daniel Lamy. The four analysts, who are headquartered in London, are fairly optimistic and have not significantly changed their general stance over the past year. They continue to favor peripheral countries’ credits over core nation opportunities and recommend investing in slightly higher-rated debt, preferring single-Bs to double-Bs. In addition, the strategists forecast that default rates for European high-yield credits will settle to 1 percent by the end of 2014 and that gross issuance will match last year’s €75 billion ($103 billion). “Our forecast for European nonfinancial high-yield bonds is a total return of 5 percent,” reports Lamy, “with spreads ending the year at 365 basis points,” up 15 basis points from their year-end 2013 value. Finally, the foursome predicts that IPO activity will increase this year and normalization in the European leveraged loan market will continue.