< The 2014 All-Europe Fixed-Income Research Team
After two years at No. 3, the seven-strong J.P. Morgan squad steps up to second place. Co-led by Malcolm Barr and David Mackie, the London-based troupe wins plaudits for its “concise and thoughtful articulation of complicated research topics,” in the words of one champion. Price stability is one such matter that has captured the economists’ attention. “We’ve had bigger declines in inflation around some of the peripheral countries, relative to what’s been happening in some of the core countries,” Mackie notes. “Not surprisingly, that has created some real concern about where inflation is going or whether the region might slide toward deflation.” Moreover, such countries as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain may not benefit from the European Central Bank’s commitment to achieving an inflation objective of just below 2 percent over the medium term because, for example, “there isn’t any institution on the planet committed to getting Spanish inflation back to 2 percent over any horizon,” he adds. “The ECB’s inflation objective is purely for the region. It’s not for individual countries.” Although the situation is different for certain core nations, he admits. “If you’re sitting there in France and Germany, given that you represent half the region, your own inflation rate is not going to be far from the central bank’s goal,” concludes Mackie. In December, Spain’s consumer prices had officially risen just 0.25 percent year over year. In France the rate was 0.69 percent; in Germany, 1.43 percent. |