France Laurent Poinsot & team CA Cheuvreux
second team Vincent Laurencin, Jean-Christophe Liaubet & team Exane BNP Paribas
third team Jean-François Delpech & team Oddo
runner-up Fabrice Théveneau & team SocGen
The 95-member Crédit Agricole Cheuvreux team captures the crown for a fifth year running. Led by Paris-based
Laurent Poinsot , 47, the team earns praise from investors for its "idea generation," "excellent client service" and "insights on issues specific to France" — the latter attribute being especially important in a year when the nation’s broad market plunged 42.1 percent. Despite the harsh economic environment, the researchers were able to identify moneymaking opportunities. They upgraded France Télécom to buy in June, at €17.45, after its bid for Swedish rival TeliaSonera was rejected; the researchers considered the acquisition ill-advised. Shares of France Télécom had risen 14.4 percent, to €19.96, by year-end. Holding steady in second place for a fifth consecutive year is the 85-analyst Exane BNP Paribas troupe. Co-captained by
Vincent Laurencin in London and
Jean-Christophe Liaubet in Paris, the analysts "are always out in the field, visiting stores and meeting with managements, so they have their fingers on the pulse of business," observes one money manager. Citing a lack of liquidity in the financial services sector, the team downgraded Belgian-French bank Dexia to underperform in June, at €13.65. In September the bank received capital infusions from the governments of Belgium, France and Luxembourg, but its share price continued to slide, ending the year at €3.20, a loss of 76.6 percent that trailed the broad market by 45.5 percentage points. Rising from runner-up to third place is the 50-strong Oddo Securities squad guided by
Jean-François Delpech . The analysts, who are based in Paris and Lyon, "know what’s going on behind the scenes," says one backer. The liquidity crisis prompted the team to downgrade investment bank Natixis in February, at €7.25. By December 31 the stock price had plummeted to €1.25.
Germany
Andreas Neubauer & team Deutsche
second team Georg Remshagen & team Dresdner Kleinwort
For a record 13th consecutive year,
Andreas Neubauer , 44, pilots the Deutsche Bank squadron to a smooth landing at No. 1. The 32-member team, with offices in Frankfurt and London, enjoys a sterling reputation for across-the-board coverage of 160 stocks. "They’re the only address you need for German and Austrian equities," declares one buy-side admirer. With Germany’s economy spiraling downward last year — the nation’s broad market fell 44.5 percent — many of the team’s most astute calls were negative. For example, the team believed that Commerzbank’s acquisition of Dresdner Bank, announced in August, was on "unattractive terms" and posed "execution risk," so they advised clients to sell the Frankfurt-based financial services firm’s stock in September, at €20.09. In late October, after the share price had plunged 67.4 percent, to €6.55, the analysts upgraded the stock to hold, on valuation. It ended the year at €6.64. Unranked last year, the six-strong Dresdner Kleinwort team, led by newcomer
Georg Remshagen , finishes second. The analysts, with offices in Frankfurt and London, downgraded jewelry distributor Bijou Brigitte Modische Accessoires to sell in January 2008, at €111.33, because of a slowdown in consumer spending on luxury goods. In late October, after the share price had slid 44.6 percent, the team upgraded it to buy, dubbing it a bargain at €61.70. By December 31 it had surged 34.5 percent, to €83.00. "The analysts have a knack for getting out in front of their peers — they’re very pro-active," says one appreciative investor. No firm garnered sufficient support to merit a third-team ranking.
Iberia
Bosco Ojeda & team UBS
second team Jesús Gómez & team Santander
Repeating in first place is the UBS team guided by
Bosco Ojeda , 35, who oversees three analysts in Madrid and one in Porto, Portugal. "They have an amazing understanding of the macro situation, which they distill down to specific stock views," says one buy-side fan. Spain’s stock market tumbled 40.0 percent last year, so it’s no surprise that some of the team’s best calls were sell recommendations. One example: The analysts initiated coverage of NH Hoteles with a sell rating in January 2008, at €11.82, reasoning that the business-hotel operator would experience a slowdown as worldwide economic troubles spurred a cutback in corporate travel. They were right. The stock ended the year at €3.69, falling 68.8 percent. The analysts upgraded energy conglomerate Acciona in November, at €64.60, on rising demand for the company’s environmentally friendly wind turbines. By the end of December, Acciona’s share price had gusted 37.8 percent, to €89.00. It’s two straight years at No. 2 for the 14-strong Santander Investment Bolsa team under the direction of Madrid-based
Jesús Gómez . "They do a great job keeping us up to speed with news flow," says one money manager. In January 2008 the team upgraded biopharmaceuticals research company Grifols to outperform, owing to the "strong fundamentals of the blood-plasma industry and the potential for Grifols to gain market share," Gómez says. By year-end the stock was ahead of the broad market by 31.9 percentage points. No firm earned enough votes to warrant publication of a third team.
Ireland
Barry Dixon & team Davy
The 18-member research team at Davy reclaims the top spot it last held in 2006, after finishing second in 2007 (no firm earned enough votes to warrant publication in 2008). Davy also has the category all to itself this year. The Dublin-based team, under the leadership of newcomer
Barry Dixon , 41, "knows all the companies, as well as the key players in management and the government," says one money manager. Ireland’s economy, which had been dubbed the Celtic Tiger for the dynamic growth it exhibited in the new millennium, stumbled badly last year; the ISEQ index plummeted 66.2 percent, making it "one of the worst-performing markets in Western Europe," Dixon says. Even so, the Davy team was able to identify some winning companies. They urged investors to buy Ryanair Holdings in September, at €2.46, after the budget air carrier resolved a dispute involving online ticket agencies’ selling seats at inflated prices. Through December the stock rose to €2.97, gaining 20.7 percent at a time when the broad market fell 37.9 percent. Another winner: October’s buy recommendation on CRH, on the belief that the building-materials company would benefit from an increase in U.S. infrastructure spending in 2009. At year-end the stock was up 21.4 percent since the call. Dixon, who earned an MBA at Dublin’s Trinity College in 1994, worked as a fund manager at Hibernian Life & Pensions before joining Davy in 2000. He was named team leader last February, after Robert Kelleher moved to the firm’s private-client division.
Italy
Pier Passerone & team Intermonte
second team Matteo Ghilotti, Stefano Lustig & team Equita
third team Roberto Odierna & team UniCredit
runners-up Mauro Baragiola & team Citi; Marco Greco & team Mediobanca; Matteo Ramenghi & team UBS
Unranked last year,
Pier Passerone and his 18-analyst, Milan-based team shoot straight to No. 1; this is Intermonte’s first appearance in the top spot since 2002. Described by one portfolio manager as "good stock pickers in a very difficult year" — the MSCI Italy index tumbled 49.6 percent in 2008 — the team downgraded Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa to underperform in January 2008, at €15.16, on concerns that the Italian cooperative bank’s low capital reserves would force it to sell assets to raise money. They were right. By year-end the stock had nose-dived to €4.95, a 67.3 percent drop that was 7.4 percentage points worse than the sector as a whole. Passerone, 36, joined Intermonte in 1996 after earning a bachelor’s degree in economics at the University of Turin. Falling one rung to second place is the 12-member Equita S.I.M. (formerly Euromobiliare S.I.M.) troupe under the direction of
Matteo Ghilotti and
Stefano Lustig , who "have a very large spread of coverage — it’s like a one-stop shop," asserts one investor. Among the Milan-based team’s top picks last year was a sell recommendation on steel-pipe manufacturer Tenaris in May, at €17.52, on slowing demand. By December 31 the share price had slumped 58.6 percent, to €7.26. In third place is the 14-strong UniCredit Global Research squad guided by
Roberto Odierna . The Milan-based team, unranked last year, is especially adept at "spotting the negative side on a lot of industrial companies," according to one client. A slowdown in consumer spending prompted yearlong sell recommendations on appliance-maker Indesit Co. and motor-scooter manufacturer Piaggio & Co.; the stocks tumbled 59.6 and 43.8 percent, respectively, in 2008.
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