Todd Bault |
Todd Bault Sanford C. Bernstein SECOND TEAM Jay Cohen Merrill Lynch THIRD TEAM Jay Gelb Barclays RUNNERS-UP Brian Meredith UBS |
In a close contest, Todd Bault of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. holds on to the top spot for a fifth consecutive year, thanks largely to what one client calls his “highly technical and academic approach.” His stock picking is another issue entirely. Bault, 43, acknowledges that “everyone in the world knows I was wrong” on American International Group. The analyst began urging clients to buy the New York–based multinational conglomerate in July 2007, at $67.83, and highlighted the call repeatedly, most recently in mid-August 2008, after the share price had plummeted 67.8 percent, to $21.83. Bault believed AIG’s losses were “completely manageable versus their book value.” Last month the U.S. government seized control of the troubled insurer. “Todd’s stock picking has not been great,” says one loyalist. “However, he thinks about the space in a creative way, understands the main drivers and articulates his themes well.” Jay Cohen of Merrill Lynch, who holds steady in second place for a fifth straight year, publishes reports that one investor says are “detailed and thoughtful and provide a great amount of information.” One example: In July, Cohen sent his clients a spreadsheet with raw data on AIG’s exposure to credit default swaps — a “you make the call” tool, he says. In August 2007 the analyst recommended buying American Financial Group, telling investors that concerns about the quality of the Cincinnati-based insurer’s mortgage-backed investments were overstated. In mid-September 2008 the stock was up 13.8 percent, compared with the sector’s 76.4 percent nosedive. It’s three years in a row in third place for Jay Gelb, who “has a detailed approach to coming up with opinions — and he’s not afraid to change them,” says one money manager. Gelb, who moved to Barclays Capital after its parent acquired Lehman Brothers last month, downgraded AIG in February, citing concerns about the company’s exposure to subprime-related losses. The share price plunged 91.4 percent before the federal government agreed to a bailout.
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