third team Alonso Cervera, Nilson Teixeira & team Credit Suisse
Gray Newman, 51, shepherds the Morgan Stanley foursome to No. 1 for a second consecutive year — and for the seventh time in eight years. Clients say the New York–based economist is a “smart, independent thinker” who “makes the best sense of the impact of global factors.” In March, with the Mexican peso at 15.38 to the dollar, near its weakest point for the year, the team argued that fears about the sustainability of Mexico’s balance of payments were overblown, and therefore pressures on the currency would ease. They were right. Through July the peso appreciated 14 percent, to 13.20.
Leapfrogging from runner-up to second place is the Santander squad of 20 under the direction of New York–based Ernest (Chip) Brown. Clients praise the team’s January report highlighting positive developments in Brazil, including increases in investors’ risk tolerance and interest in Brazilian securities. Through July, Brazil’s benchmark BM&F Bovespa index jumped 39 percent.
Down from second place to third is Credit Suisse’s eight-member crew co-headed by newcomer Alonso Cervera, who is based in New York, and São Paulo–based Nilson Teixeira, who also co-leads the No. 3 team in Brazil. In December the economists predicted that Mexico’s central bank would ease monetary policy to stimulate growth. The following month, Banco de México instituted the first of seven straight monthly rate cuts, lowering the rate from 8.25 percent at the start of the year to 4.5 percent in June.
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