Bolting from third place to land in the winner’s circle for the first time is Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s nine-strong squad co-captained by Hak Bin Chua, who is stationed in Singapore, and Hong Kong–based Ting Lu. Chua, 46, “always comes up with timely topics that are relevant to market positioning ahead of the curve — and he has in-depth coverage on Malaysia in particular, which is lacking in the market,” observes one Hong Kong–based client. Lu, 38, “is the leading China economist, with insightful calls against the flow when many China analysts offer an overly consensus view,” this money manager adds. The team is generally upbeat. “We are forecasting Asia ex-Japan’s real gross domestic product growth to strengthen slightly in the remainder of the year, supported by exports and a modest U.S. recovery in the second half,” Chua reports. The crew projects GDP expansion in emerging Asia of 6.5 percent this year, up from 6.2 percent in 2012, and acceleration to 6.8 percent next year. As for the region’s dominant market: “We are optimistic about the short-term prospects, as we expect China’s consumption growth to recover and property-investment growth to stabilize,” Lu explains. “Worries about credit tightening will be alleviated thanks to low inflationary pressures.” However, “we believe China’s potential growth is on a downward trend because of a shrinking labor force and the country’s rising size. We forecast GDP growth at 8 percent in 2013 and 7.7 percent in 2014, compared to 7.8 percent in 2012.” Chua holds a Ph.D. in economics from the Harvard Business School; he moved to BofA Merrill in 2010 from Citi, where he served as head of Singapore research. Lu joined the firm in 2006 after earning a Ph.D. in economics at the University of California, Berkeley. — Thomas W. Johnson |
Economics & Strategy – Economics: First
