Most insurers expect a recession in the U.S. within three years, but the S&P 500 to go up in 2026, according to the results of Goldman Sachs’ 15th annual global insurance survey.

Of the 434 global insurers that responded to the survey conducted from January 11 to February 3, 2026, 55 percent expect the U.S. will enter a recession within the next three years, up from 46 percent a year ago. However, insurers remain optimistic about markets this year, with 88 percent expecting the S&P 500 to climb higher in 2026.

Most respondents cited geopolitical tensions and a slowdown or recession in the U.S. as the primary macroeconomic risk to their investment portfolios. Still, 62 percent plan to increase their allocation to private assets this year — consistent with results of a poll Institutional Investor took with corporate and insurance allocators at a private event in March.

“While we see several growth tailwinds — including from increased fiscal support and fading tariff headwinds — and expect core inflation to ease in 2026, the outlook has become more challenging due to the war in Iran,” stated Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of global investment research for Goldman Sachs. “We expect higher energy prices will slow growth and raise headline inflation, with effects increasing the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.”

Asset-backed finance is appealing to insurers, with a net 38 percent planning to increase their allocations to the asset class over the next 12 months. Other attractive asset classes in their view include investment-grade private placements (net 35 percent), senior direct lending (net 33 percent), private equity (net 25 percent), and infrastructure (net 25 percent). 

“Private credit has continued to evolve into a broad and deep asset class and a core holding for insurers looking to address their yield and duration matching needs,” said Mike Siegel, global head of insurance asset management and liquidity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “They are sophisticated investors that are able to invest and be opportunistic in credit cycles. We believe they represent patient capital and are well positioned to be a lender of choice to high quality borrowers in more volatile markets.” 

Most respondents — 55 percent — expect the S&P to return between 5 percent and 10 percent, with 18 percent forecasting a return between 10 percent and 20 percent. Goldman expects the S&P to return 12 percent in 2026, due to double-digit EPS growth, continued economic resilience, and further monetary easing creating favorable conditions for U.S. stocks.

The asset classes insurers expect to deliver the highest total returns in the next 12 months include: private equity (18 percent), U.S. equities (17 percent), commodities (13 percent percent), emerging markets equities (12 percent), and private equity secondaries (8 percent).