The 2014 All-Russia Research Team: Fixed-Income Strategy, No. 3: Pavel Pikulev

Repeating in third place is Deutsche Bank’s Pavel Pikulev, who is known for his “deep understanding of the regulatory and foreign exchange environments,” as one portfolio manager says. Clients praise in particular the strategist’s bearish call on Russia’s ruble-denominated sovereign bonds in November. Pikulev issued a counterconsensus forecast that the Central Bank of Russia would soon raise interest rates, which would drive up yields on the Obligatsyi Federal’novo Zaima, better known as OFZs. He was right. In March the CBR hiked its key rate by 150 basis points, and the benchmark ten-year OFZs’ yield jumped by the same amount. Then in late April the regulator raised rates by an additional 50 basis points. As a result, the ten-year sovereign’s yield spiked by a further 70 basis points. In all, the rate increases produced some 2 trillion rubles ($57.7 billion) of “unconventional liquidity,” Pikulev says. “Pavel stuck to his guns and saved us from a potential disaster,” cheers another advocate.