< The 2016 All-Europe Research Team

Total appearances: 52

Team debut: 1986

Newcomer Reinhard Cluse leads his five-member UBS group to third place. Last year the crew claimed second-place honors under the direction of Lawrence Hatheway, who in September became chief economist at Swiss asset manager GAM Holding. “I like that Reinhard and the UBS team are fast with insightful follow-up on data points and events,” one investor says. “They then deliver up-to-date comments on the information in a format that is easy to absorb.” Working out of Frankfurt and London, the economists are forecasting real gross domestic product expansion of 1.5 percent in 2015 and 1.8 percent this year and next — “which by U.S. standards is not so impressive,” Cluse acknowledges, “but by Europe’s more mediocre standards, it is good and it suggests progress.” Key drivers of this outlook include “supereasy monetary policy that has extended unprecedented stimulus in order to boost the growth rate,” he notes, as well as a weaker euro, low oil and commodities prices — “which is universally positive in Europe because we don’t have our own oil” — and the gradual healing of the European banking sector. In addition, fiscal policy is also serving as a catalyst. To put public finances on a more sustainable footing during the euro zone crisis, many European governments allocated significant amounts of money to bailing out banks while curtailing other outlays, the team leader points out. ”But now that a lot of the heavy lifting has been done, they can spend a bit more money, so fiscal policy is turning in support of growth again.” Cluse, 47, studied economics at Germany’s University of Freiburg, earning a master’s degree and doctorate, and worked as an emerging-markets specialist at Commerzbank before signing on with UBS in October 2002. Until early 2013, when he added responsibility for developed regional markets, Cluse directed the firm’s emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa economics squad, leading that group to several appearances on Institutional Investor’s emerging EMEA rankings, including first place in 2012.