The wild ride in global markets in recent weeks has led investors to consider fresh risk factors. Industrial data from Asia’s two largest economies and oil production figures in the U.S. will provide more supply and demand inputs for forecasters measuring world growth prospects, while the European Central Bank’s monthly press conference will likely focus on the deflation that is stalking the euro zone. As peak tourist season in Europe winds down, new figures will indicate whether a weakened Turkish lira attracted more visitors in spite of regional security concerns.
Monday, August 31: Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases July industrial production figures. At a 1.5 percent quarter-over-quarter decline, second-quarter production levels were disappointing. The recent move by the People’s Bank of China to devalue the yuan caused consternation among Japanese business leaders facing the prospect of a stronger yen relative to the currency of China, Japan’s largest trading partner.
Tuesday, September 1: Investors and analysts will have their eyes peeled for official China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and Markit/Caixin both publish final August manufacturing purchasing managers’ index readings, helping to lend insight on China’s growth trajectory and commodities consumption.
Wednesday, September 2: The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s crude storage report will be closely scrutinized in light of the multidecade seasonal high in inventories. Despite low prices, production levels in Texas and the Bakken shale continue to rise as North American producers square off with OPEC.
Thursday, September 3: European Central Bank president Mario Draghi will speak after the bank’s interest rate announcement on Thursday. With inflation expectations remaining historically low for the common currency zone, many forecasters believe that the ECB‘s quantitative easing program may get extended well beyond initial target dates.
Friday, September 4: TurkStat announces July foreign arrivals data, a closely watched measure in Turkey, a nation that derives such a significant portion of GDP — 12 percent in 2014 — and employment from tourism. Regional instability has dampened the enthusiasm of travelers recently. Numbers from the Turkish Ministry of Tourism showed a decline of 2.25 percent during the first six months of the year and according to TurkStat figures, a 13.8 percent year-on-year decline in tourism income during the second quarter. At the request of the country’s tourism sector, the Turkish government is delaying the start of the school year by two weeks in an attempt to spur last-minute holidaymaking.
Saturday, September 5: The British Royal Family will be among those convening in the village of Braemar, Scotland for the annual Highland Games Gathering to watch traditional Scottish pastimes such as bagpipe playing, dancing and the caber toss, a game of strength. The competition dates back 900 years to the reign of King Malcolm III, and legend holds that a highland games competition in Paris helped to inspire Baron Pierre de Coubertin when he created the modern Olympic games.