The 2014 All-Russia Research Team: Financial Services, No. 2: Andrew Keeley

For a second consecutive year, Sberbank CIB’s Andrew Keeley in London wins second place on this list, notching his fifth appearance in that position in the past seven years. The analyst is “cautious on Russian banks,” he says, “given the challenging economic outlook.” On that theme, he downgraded Moscow-based VTB Bank from hold to sell in late May, when its global depositary receipts were trading at $2.72, citing a decline in lending resulting from the stagnant macro environment. Keeley adds, however, that “selective value can be found.” For example, he favors the Moscow Exchange, Russia’s largest trading markets operator. In April 2013 he added the name to his coverage universe with a buy rating, deeming the company “a profitable vertically integrated business with a versatile model that offers protection in choppy markets.” By the end of May 2014, the shares had jumped 36.6 percent, to 65.75 rubles, even as the sector fell by 11.2 percent. Keeley projects further upside, maintaining a target price of 74.60 rubles. “I trust Andrew’s views,” reports one fund manager. “He is always one to watch and follow closely.”