While investors pump money into private assets to gain alpha, most of that capital is going to the brand names, thereby diluting their chances of excess returns, according to Tina Byles Williams, founding CEO and CIO of Xponance. So, investors should “look more carefully in the unloved and less capitalized spaces within private markets,” she said. 

Speaking with Institutional Investor in New York in early February, Byles Williams explained that private markets are a big priority for Xponance, which celebrates its 30th anniversary this year. However, overconcentration is becoming a problem. The more investors flood the same private equity giants with capital, the further that will push down returns over time.

“If you look at where allocation dollars are going versus where alpha is, they're not in the same place, which is why we're focusing on mid-market GPs,” Byles Williams said. She added that the Philadelphia-based investment firm is “looking for alpha in the less picked over spaces,” both in terms of managers and regions. 

PitchBook data show the 10 largest private equity funds pulled in 46 percent of all capital raised in the U.S. — its highest level since 2014. And yet, U.S. private equity funds have returned only 5.8 percent since 2022, trailing the S&P 500’s 11.6 percent. Fewer than 14 percent of investors responding to II’s latest global asset management survey found their private equity portfolios exceeded expectations, while 43 percent reported them falling short.

Meanwhile, the middle market is gaining momentum. The sector posted an 8.5 percent one-year return with third-quarter deal volume hitting $107 billion, even as fundraising falls to its lowest level since before the pandemic. 

“This is an industry that is slow to recognize trends,” Byles Williams said. “It's also an industry which, for reasonable legal reasons, quite frankly, kind of prefers comfort and scale over focus and performance.” 

Rather than treat private equity “as this big casino table” where brand names guarantee big wins, Byles Williams suggests that allocators should recognize that these managers are crowded with capital and chasing the same deals.