Seawolf Capital decided to “roll the dice” and invest aggressively last year, which led to a 44 percent gain in its portfolio of publicly traded equities.

Seawolf principals Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins — who gained fame working at FrontPoint with “Big Short” star Steve Eisman — used a Mafia metaphor to describe their risk-on behavior. In their annual review of 2025, they compared the strategy to the dilemma faced by Henry Hill, the Mafioso turned informant immortalized in the Scorsese movie “Goodfellas.”

Hill wanted to take on more risk by dealing in narcotics, they explained, but Paulie, his boss, warned him to “stay away from that garbage.”

“We have had conversations with our version of Paulie (risk management) and respect the precariousness of our ways,” they said in the review. “However, for a few more months at least, we believe there’s still time to grab a stiff cocktail and cut up that coke with a six of diamonds at Debi Mazar’s apartment. In other words, like Henry, ignore Paulie’s concerns, continue to take risks, but be on the lookout for the cops.”

To put it in more finance-friendly terms, they noted that “fiscal largesse and an accommodating Federal Reserve facilitated a rich environment for risk assumption.” Calling themselves “contrarians at the gate,” they said they have “deployed more leverage than years past with concentrated positions — a potentially dangerous combination if not managed meticulously.”

It’s working for now, they said, but “we recognize the risks of being levered long at what might be the later innings of a four-year bull market.”

Last year’s standout performance was largely due to gold, silver, and “a smidgeon” of platinum — which they called the “debasement” theme.  “Sadly, we wasted several basis points of performance shorting stocks,” they added. “Old habits die hard.”

Going forward, Seawolf is betting that President Trump will pull out all the stops to try to increase Republicans’ chances in the upcoming midterm elections.

For example, they explained that the Trump tax bill was designed to “move money from government-subsidized sectors (renewables, healthcare) into consumer pockets and industrial capex — and do it as quickly as possible.”

Lower gas prices and an accommodating Fed, accompanied by an “even more Dovish” Fed chairman to be nominated by Trump, are also in the forecast.

“It’s time to speculate on stocks that show little to no earnings momentum currently but that could look materially different six months from now,” the Seawolf trio wrote. Emerging markets, oil and oil field services, coal, consumer discretionary, housing, and chemicals are among the sectors the hedge fund is looking at.

“If this list causes a mouthful of distaste as if you dug up bodies buried six months ago, take comfort in the fact that you are in company,” the Seawolf principals said, revisiting the mafia metaphor.

“We too question our sanity,” they admitted. “But our bearish proclivities keep our confidence in check with constant visions of helicopters following our every move.”

And they noted that “unlike Henry Hill, we understand our current aggressive strategy has a shot clock. It hasn’t escaped us that Henry Hill’s story ended poorly, requiring him to snitch on his colleagues, jettison his desired profession and relocate his family to protect them from potential retribution,” they said.

“Greed and carelessness were the reasons for his undoing,” they warned. “We want to make sure we don’t make the same mistake.”