The 2003 All-Japan Research Team

Click here to view the entire 2003 All-Japan Reseach Team results available in the Research & Rankings section of this site.

Providing first-rate research on Japanese stocks is no small accomplishment. In the year through early March, the Nikkei 225 index had fallen 29 percent; since its December 1989 peak, it has plunged by more than 80 percent. The government has repeatedly promised meaningful financial reforms in important areas like banking, only to end up with seriously compromised proposals that accomplish little. Thus the economy has suffered through four recessions in the past decade. Disappointed foreign and local investors are understandably skeptical about any advice that urges them to put their money into Japanese equities.

Not surprisingly, the Japanese researchers considered best by investors voting for the 2003 All-Japan Research Team are those who combine patience, deep-seated industry knowledge and, not least, courage in propounding their views. Take repeat first-team equity strategist Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Securities. A long-time bear, Musha disagreed last August with the bulls who forecast that the Nikkei would go higher. He stuck to his convictions, predicting a drop from about 10,000 to 8,000 and warning customers to steer clear; by early March the Nikkei was at 8,144. Other analysts wisely cautioned clients to wait, even as a handful, like first-time third-teamer Yasumasa Goda of Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co., somehow managed to locate the one stock (telecom KDDI Corp.) that defied its sector trend and rose significantly (up 85 percent).

Which firms delivered on their convictions most often? In a remarkable turnabout, Nikko Citigroup, the partnership between Nikko Securities and Salomon Smith Barney, jumps from fifth a year ago to tie perennial research powerhouse Nomura Securities Co. for the top spot. Also on the rise: Deutsche, UBS Warburg, Credit Suisse First Boston and Mizuho Securities Equities Research.

Click here to view the entire 2003 All-Japan Reseach Team results available in the Research & Rankings section of this site.

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