The buy side says: “Choi has a good read of overall macro conditions.”
At No. 1 is Citi’s Kam Keung (Oscar) Choi, who “called the bottom toward the end of 2008 and was right with his calls through 2009,” cheers one money manager. Choi, 32, urged investors in March 2009 to buy developer Poly (Hong Kong) Investments, at HK$1.57, on valuation. In January, after the share price had shot up 552.2 percent, to HK$10.24, and beat the sector by a whopping 464.9 percentage points, Choi downgraded the sector to sell, on fears that the property market was overheating. Poly’s stock subsequently fell 21.1 percent, to HK$8.08, through May.
Choi, who earned a master’s degree in Chinese history at the University of Hong Kong in 2009, worked as a real estate analyst at DBS Vickers Securities before joining Citi in 2007.
Second Team
Tony Tsang Citi
Choi’s former colleague Tony Tsang, who moved from Citi to Deutsche Bank in May, captures second-place honors. “I really like his work on small-cap and midcap properties,” says one buy-side backer. Says another: “He does a good job comparing the different segments of the market, such as the luxury market versus the mass market.” In January 2009, Tsang turned bearish on Hong Kong real estate, telling clients the entire sector was likely to underperform, and indeed it did. Through May 2010, Hong Kong’s real estate sector trailed that of the mainland by 2.5 percentage points.
Third Team
Yi Wang Goldman Sachs (Asia)
Yi Wang finishes third. The Goldman Sachs (Asia) analyst is “knowledgeable about the industry and provides some of the best models and valuations for China property stocks,” insists one appreciative client. In April 2009, Wang upgraded Agile Property Holdings of Hong Kong, at HK$5.24, and Hong Kong–headquartered Shimao Property Holdings, at HK$7.13, as “proxies for Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta,” two regions in which she anticipated strong growth. Through May the stocks advanced 60.1 and 62.7 percent, to HK$8.39 and HK$11.60, respectively.
Runner-up
Wee Liat Lee Nomura
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View the complete results of the 2010 All-China Research Team Rankings