The 2014 All-Russia Research Team: Economics, No. 2: Jacob Nell

Making an impressive debut in second place is Morgan Stanley’s Jacob Nell. The British-born researcher wins praise for being “one of the few foreign economists who is fluent in Russian and has a broad network among Russian businesses and economic authorities,” as one buy-side strategist from Helsinki puts it. In July, when the dollar was trading just below 32.50 rubles, Nell predicted that future monetary easing by the Central Bank of Russia, persistent capital outflows and declining support from Russia’s balance of payments would result in a depreciation of the ruble, which proved correct. By mid-March the currency had plunged to 36.47 to the dollar, before rising to 34.74 at the end of May. Looking ahead, he foresees “a macro-dominated environment” of slow growth and high inflation. Accordingly, Nell is advising clients to heed such top-down factors as “the Ukrainian security crisis and the related appetite for Russian assets.”