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Economics & Strategy – Equity Strategy: First

In first place for a second year running is the Morgan Stanley squad under Guilherme Paiva, who has directed coverage since 2010.

Guilherme Paiva
& team
Morgan Stanley
First-place appearances: 6

Total appearances: 13

Team debut: 1994

In first place for a second year running is the Morgan Stanley squad under Guilherme Paiva, who has directed coverage since 2010. The New York–based strategist also leads teams that rank as runner-up and second, respectively, for coverage of Argentina and Brazil. Paiva, 38, “is great at anticipating the next big themes in the market and translating them into practical ideas that clients can implement,” applauds one fund manager. The crew is urging clients to overweight Mexico, on the belief that it will benefit from improvements in the U.S. economy. In addition, “you could argue that the outlook for energy and fiscal reforms in Mexico, coming up the beginning of the second half, is very promising,” he says. The analysts are especially bullish on the country’s petrochemicals producers, which should respond well to the aforementioned opening of the energy industry, and real estate investment trusts. They also recommend overweighting Peru, which is “slowing down — but from a really strong base,” and underweighting Colombia because it is “going through a soft patch this year,” Paiva explains. — Carolyn Koo


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