Evgeny Gavrilenkov, now in his sixth straight year at No. 1, is one of only three analysts who have appeared on the All-Russia Research Team every year since its inception in 2004. (His Sberbank CIB colleague Alexander Kudrin, who captures first place in Fixed-Income Strategy, and Renaissance Capital’s Alexander Kazbegi are the others.) “I believe the economy will expand by around 3 percent this year,” Gavrilenkov says. Russia’s real gross domestic product growth will accelerate in the second half, he adds, while inflation — which surged 7.4 percent in May, the highest monthly rate in nearly two years — will decline. “This will have a positive impact on domestic demand, as interest rates will also come down,” he predicts. Drought and wildfires caused Russia’s grain production to plunge in 2012, but the Ministry of Agriculture is forecasting a strong recovery this year. “A better harvest will lead to a bounce back in agriculture, which can grow by 8 to 10 percent this year, and it will lift transport and wholesale trade,” the economist explains. “These sectors together can add around 0.5 percent to GDP growth — at least.” Gavrilenkov, 58, “has depth as an economist, great perspective after many years in the markets, and speaks directly with senior Russian policymakers,” observes one buy-side supporter. “He is able to see through a lot of the short-term distractions to provide sober, hard-headed analysis about Russia’s political economy.” — Thomas W. Johnson |
Economics & Strategy – Economics: First
