Allocators remain confident that private and public equities will continue to be the top performing investments in 2026, despite heightened geopolitical instability, according to the latest institutional investor survey conducted by Commonfund. Still, investors’ enthusiasm has been moderated by global events.

Geopolitical events topped the list of investor concerns (at 52 percent), followed by rising inflation (17 percent), and a potential recession (10 percent). Still, sentiment toward the broader U.S. economy remains measured but constructive. 

Of the 204 institutional investors that Commonfund polled at its annual Forum event in Hollywood, Fla., last month, 42 percent described themselves as “neutral,” and more than a third expressed a “bullish” view (35 percent), up from 22 percent in last year’s survey. Seventeen percent of respondents described themselves as “bearish,” down from 22 percent last year.

When assessing their own organizations’ ability to meet long-term targets, most remain constructive (a theme from last year’s survey as well): Nearly 59 percent are “modestly bullish” about achieving target returns over the next 10 years, with 17 percent “very bullish.” Only 17 percent said they were starting to feel nervous about their ability to meet those goals, and one percent reported feeling very nervous.

Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty may support the case for private markets. “When public market volatility is elevated and correlations are rising, the premium for illiquid, actively managed strategies grows,” said Tim Yates, president and CEO of Commonfund OCIO. He added that the survey was conducted shortly before the U.S. and Israel invaded Iran, so the answers might be very different today than they were just a few weeks ago.

Investors most frequently selected private equity (49 percent) and public equities (40 percent) as the asset classes expected to deliver the best absolute returns over the next 12 months, followed by venture capital (34 percent) and real assets (27 percent). Further down the list, 16 percent of respondents chose private credit, followed by fixed income (14 percent) and cryptocurrencies / digital assets (7 percent) followed.

Nearly half — 49 percent — expect U.S. stock market returns to be lower in 2026 than the S&P 500’s 10-year average annualized return of 13 percent (as of February 2026). Meanwhile, 35 percent anticipate returns to be about the same, while 14 percent expect higher returns. Only two percent expect negative returns.

“We're not looking at a retreat from equities,” Yates said. “Investors are saying 'we expect good, not exceptional' from public markets.”

Meanwhile, expectations for private markets over the next 12–18 months are largely stable, with 34 percent of investors expecting returns to be about the same as the previous 12–18 months, 31 percent expecting stronger returns and 30 percent expecting weaker returns. 

Yates said, “this reflects a fundamental conviction that compelling risk-adjusted opportunities still exist outside of public markets — particularly when you pair them with the ability to access high caliber opportunities.” Additionally, while public equity markets have been on such a tear and private markets have lagged, PE deal activity and exits began to rebound in 2025. 

“Taken together, these trends may lead institutional investors to believe that the recent returns in the public markets will eventually find their way into private equity markets,” he added.

 

(Tim Yates is the president and CEO of Commonfund OCIO. An earlier version of this article misstated his role.)