second team Kenneth Bruce BofA Merrill Lynch
third team Moshe Orenbuch Credit Suisse
It’s five in a row for Bruce Harting. The 51-year-old Barclays Capital analyst is lauded for supplying “a lot more detailed information than his competitors,” according to one money manager, citing an April report in which Harting argued that credit card issuers American Express Co. and Capital One had sufficient reserves to buffer them against the recession, one month before the government’s stress tests reached the same conclusion. Harting reiterated his long-standing equal-weight rating on the stocks, which by August 31 had gained 123.1 and 190.9 percent, respectively.
Kenneth Bruce of BofA Merrill leapfrogs from runner-up to second place. In December the San Francisco–based analyst highlighted his long-held bearish stance on credit card issuers, first downgraded to underperform one year earlier, on continued credit erosion. From his initial downgrade through August 31, 2009, the MSCI consumer finance index plunged 43.6 percent, surpassing the decline of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index by 11.3 percentage points. Yet critics complain that Bruce missed the sector’s 240.6 percent run-up since March. “His analysis is fearless, but I look forward to his upgrades,” says one ally.
Repeat third-teamer Moshe Orenbuch of Credit Suisse has an “uncanny knack for picking stocks,” attests one fund manager. In March, Orenbuch took over coverage of JPMorgan Chase from a colleague with an outperform rating at $23.67, citing management’s ability to rein in spending, among other factors. By the end of August, the stock had catapulted 83.6 percent, to $43.46.
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