Daily Agenda: The Week Ahead, June 26 – July 2, 2016

Spain faces another election with major implications for the entire EU; Brazilian budget figures will reveal the headwinds facing the new administration; The pageantry of a medieval horse race in Italy


Roberto Vicario

Sunday, June 26: Spain heads to the polls in elections that observers predict will be a bit of déjà vu: a splintered government. After Spain’s December elections failed to yield a new government, in May King Felipe VI issued a decree to dissolve the country’s parliament, paving the way for this latest round of polling. The ruling Partido Popular, a conservative party, is expecting to win this latest round of voting, as it did in December, and again without a clear coalition partner. For bond investors mindful of the fallout in Greece following the ascendency of the Syriza party a major question is whether the Spanish the anti-austerity party Podemos can secure sufficient seats.

Tuesday, June 28: The 2016 World Economic Forum’s New Champions meeting in Tianjin, China winds down. This year’s theme is “The Fourth Industrial Revolution and its Transformational Impact” and will count Uber Technologies CEO Travis Kalanick among its co-chairs and presenters. In February the ride-sharing company revealed that its losses on Chinese operations totaled an annual $1 billion as it faces extreme competition from local rivals. Kalanick insists that Uber is well positioned ultimately to prevail in the market.

Wednesday, June 29: Brazil’s Ministry of Finance releases monthly national budget balance figures stand to lend insight into the depth of the challenges facing acting Brazilian President Michel Temer. Last week his administration approved a nearly $1 billion emergency aid package for Rio de Janeiro State, as the region struggles to prepare for the Olympics in the face of dwindling public funds.

Thursday, June 30: Both notes from the June European Central Bank policy meeting and Eurostat preliminary consumer price index levels for June are on deck. With the ECB easing facility now actively purchasing corporate bonds, any signal that deflationary pressure remains in place may drive European yields lower across the full curve. In advance of the U.K.’s vote Thursday to secede from the European Union, ECB president Mario Draghi had pledged to take any action necessary to protect the euro zone’s prospects for growth. Friday, July 1: Both the government National Bureau of Statistics and the private Caixin/Markit release final China PMI data for June. May data disappointed investors with weaker-than-forecast performance for the manufacturing and service sectors despite stimulus measures by the People’s Bank of China. Despite sluggish activity signals and lower investment levels in recent quarters, last week’s INSEAD Asian Business Sentiment Index released indicated that there is a revival of optimism among corporate leaders in the region.

Saturday, July 2: The Italian city of Siena plays host to the Palio di Siena, a horse race whose origins trace back to medieval times and has existed in its modern form since 1656. The ten-man, saddleless, non-purebred horse race honors the Madonna of Provenzano. Feasting and medieval pageantry add to the twice-annual spectacle; Siena hosts another Palio on August 19 in honor of the Assumption of Mary.