< The 2015 Latin America Research Team
Total appearances: 16
Team debut: 1996Although Ivano Westin and his Credit Suisse trio slip to second place, they maintain a loyal following — in large part for being early in warning clients away from Brazilian mining giant Vale. From their offices in São Paulo and Mexico City, the analysts report on 14 regional metals and mining names. Westin joined the firm and assumed leadership of sectoral coverage in December 2011, and two months later the team lowered its rating on Vale, the dominant global supplier of iron ore, from outperform to neutral. Vale’s American depositary receipts were then trading at $21.45, and the researchers saw trouble ahead from flat sales volumes, project delays and an ongoing dispute regarding unpaid tax claims in its home market. In October 2014 they further reduced their rating to underperform, citing weaker global steel demand, Vale’s stretched balance sheet and declining dividends. By then the ADRs had tumbled 52.2 percent and lagged the regional sector by 10.1 percentage points. Subsequently, through mid-July they slumped 46.7 percent further, to $5.46, trailing Latin America’s metals and mining shares by 21.1 percentage points. Westin, 38, “was on top of Vale from the start,” cheers one institutional client. “His team helped me understand the risks and gave me the conviction to short the stock.” Going forward, Credit Suisse’s squad maintains a cautious view of the entire space, owing to price weakness.
