Henry Hall,
Simon Nellis
& team
Citi
Despite dropping from first place back to third, the Citi team under Henry Hall and Simon Nellis continues to impress clients with “thorough research and good modeling,” in the words of one ally. “Turkish banks have been the star performers this year,” says Hall. “The outperformance has been driven primarily by falling rates, which have supported margins and healthy loan volumes.” In light of the subsector’s strong performance in 2012 — it gained 64.6 percent — the analysts are generally neutral this year but maintain buy ratings on Türkiye Halk Bankası and Yapı ve Kredi Bankası, Turkish firms that rose 14.9 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively, year-to-date through May. “While we expect further positive near-term share price performance on these stocks, we remain cautious longer term, as we fear the rate cycle will be turning later this year or early next year — an event the market is likely to price in beforehand,” Hall warns. The crew consists of seven researchers working out of Poland, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and the U.K. — Leslie Kramer