Jan Hatzius Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Jan Hatzius of Goldman, Sachs & Co. rises from runner-up to third. In December, Hatzius issued a conservative forecast for the year ahead: Dwindling federal stimulus dollars would contribute to sluggish real gross domestic product growth of about 1.5 percent in the second half of 2010, modest increases in unemployment, low inflation and no interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Through August his cautious views appear to be right on track: The unemployment rate inched up from 9.7 percent in January to 9.9 percent in April before slipping back to 9.6 percent in August; the inflation rate slowed from 2.6 percent in January to 1.1 percent in August; and the Fed’s benchmark overnight lending rate remains at a historic low of 0.25 percent. “While many other economists were building optimism by pointing to economic indicators that exceeded expectations, Jan’s predictions were on the money!” proclaims one satisfied client.