Shigeki Okazaki Nomura
second team Hirosuke Tai Daiwa
third team Toshiharu Morota Deutsche
In the top spot for a fifth consecutive year is Nomura’s Shigeki Okazaki. “He’s one of the few analysts who can estimate future earnings better than the companies themselves,” champions one investor. Last April the 42-year-old analyst upgraded Sumitomo Heavy Industries from neutral to buy, at ¥353, on rising demand for the construction equipment manufacturer’s plastics-molding products. He was right. Through February the shares surged 30.3 percent, to ¥460; during the same period the sector eked out a gain of just 1.6 percent.
Hirosuke Tai captures second place for a third straight year; he is also ranked third in Machinery. The Daiwa analyst takes a “broad view, covering both machinery and plant engineering, unlike his counterparts at other firms,” in the words of one money manager. Tai also keeps his eye on Sumitomo Heavy Industries, but his May valuation-based downgrade from outperform to neutral was premature, critics say; the stock continued to lead the sector by 16.1 points through February.
Deutsche’s Toshiharu Morota repeats in third place. Clients appreciate the analyst’s “frequent voice mail updates, which keep us informed,” as one buy-side backer puts it. In July, Morota upgraded JGC Corp. from hold to buy, at ¥1,482, partly on the natural-gas and nuclear-power-plant developer’s aggressive expansion plans. Shares surged as high as ¥1,948 in October before slipping to ¥1,670 through February on earnings disappointments.
