David Nangle Renaissance
second team Andrew Keeley Troika
third team Bob Kommers Deutsche
David Nangle of Renaissance Capital is No. 1 for a third year running. "He is always one of the first people to put out a note or talk about developments in this space," says one client. Nangle, 33, has had a lot to talk about since last fall, when the collapse of the U.S.’s Lehman Brothers Holdings sent shock waves through financial markets around the world. "The downturn came quickly, and it came sharply," Nangle says, referring to the Russian financial sector’s 68.4 percent plunge from September through April. As the crisis unfolded, the analyst shifted from making stock calls to assessing institutional asset quality as the number of nonperforming loans skyrocketed, topping 3 percent of Russian banks’ total credit portfolios at the end of the first quarter — more than double the 1.5 percent recorded at the end of June 2008, Russia’s central bank reported. Nangle predicts the figure could go as high as 15 percent by year-end. "The real challenge now is sizing the problem," he says. "It’s still really crazy." Andrew Keeley of Troika Dialog, who repeats in second place, wins praise for being "consistent in his views," according to one investor. In March Keeley emphasized his long-term buy recommendation on Vozrozhdenie Bank, calling the shares undervalued at $5.85 and a good defensive play because of the small-cap bank’s "resilient business model." Through April the stock skyrocketed 122.2 percent, to $13. Rising from runner-up to third place is Bob Kommers , who moved from UBS to Deutsche Bank in May 2008. Kommers also suspended stock recommendations in the wake of the financial crisis. "The collapse in the equity markets changed the analyst’s job," he explains. "It made stock calls rather meaningless, as macro factors and credit market conditions were driving share prices." Clients praise Kommers’s regular updates on weaknesses in Russia’s financial system and corporate dependence on foreign debt.
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All-Russia Research Team Rankings